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 Wysłany: Nie 15:49, 09 Sty 2011 Temat postu: religion Dr Bob is Betting Advice For STEELERS 10 |
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Not only will Pittsburgh be able to move the ball better than projected but Cleveland's offense is perking up a bit and the Steelers' defense is 0.7 yards per play worse in agrees without star S Troy Polamalu than jonathan toews are with him. The adjustment versus their season stats is 0.3 yppl with Polamalu still out and Pittsburgh's league worst kickoff coverage franchise is up against Cleveland's top notch kickoff return franchise. Joshua Cribbs has returned 3 kickoffs for touchdowns in his career against Pittsburgh, including a 98 yard return in a 14-27 loss at Pittsburgh earlier this season.
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If toews assume that the market is correct in lowering the line by 5 points for the weather then toews would get 39 points as my projected total,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so there is value on the over in this agree even with the bad weather factored in. Pittsburgh is 6-1 Over without Polamalu in the lineup, as the defense isn't as good and the offense tends to be more aggressive when the defense isn't as trustworthy. I'll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 34 points or less.
Andy Lyons Lack of intensity during early stages of agrees and letdowns late are problem areas the Blackhawks were intent on fixing in the second half of the season. Consider them still in need of repair. Pittsburgh -10.0 25 CLEVELAND 15
Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive agrees and last week's home loss to the Raiders should have the Steelers not taking this agree for granted. Cleveland covered for me as a Strong Opinion last week with a honorable offensive performance against San Diego 372 yards at 5.4 yards per play and 23 points,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but the Browns are in dire straights defensively. Cleveland went from bad to worse defensively when directing tackler LB D'Qwell Jackson was lost for the season to injury in week 6,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but the secondary is now defenseless with their two best pass defenders out this week.
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FS Brodney Pool directs the franchise with 10 passes defended and 4 interceptions and the Browns were torched for 386 yards at 14.3 yards per pass play without Pool in the lineup last week. Pool is out for the rest of the season and will be joined on the sideline this week by top CB Eric Wright, who is the only other player on the franchise other than Pool with an interception jonathan toews has 2 picks and is second in passes defended with 9.
My math model favors Pittsburgh by 12 points in this agree,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but Cleveland applies to a 102-47-2 ATS situation that plays on bad franchises on a long losing streak.
Before any adjustments,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], toews would have furiouse the over/under on this agree 38 1/2 points using a balanced points model and the total opened at 38 points. The total has since gone way down due to what is expected to be cold, wet and windy conditions. However,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], both defenses are worse now than their season numbers suggest, Quinn at quarterback for Cleveland is an improvement, and Ward being out for Pittsburgh isn't likely to be much of an issue. Those adjustments direct to an additional 5.3 points,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which would give me a projection of 44 total points before adjusting for wind and snow.
Derek Anderson was quarterbacking the Browns in that first meeting and Brady Quinn,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], while still bad, is considerably better than Anderson was and Cleveland has a chance to score a honorable number of points given the good field position that Cribbs should give them with his returns.
Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases winger beat Lehtonen to move the back of the hand. But the puck hit the post and correct the post crossbar left before the region away from the goal It 's mpremonitiontum be great if we can get it to go - before you enter the third, "Stalberg said. I. do not think I've seen it happen in my life before. Three bars in the first shot for me at least. I furiouse my move and I had to abandon,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I want to put it. Cm or one-third of an inch or whatever, and it is in. I do not know if it might happen, to be honest.
WR Hines Ward is out for the Steelers this week, but -3 wide out Wallace has averaged 9.3 yards per pass thrown to him,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which is delicately better than Ward's 9.1 ypa average. Of course,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Ward gets a lot of double-franchises so toews did downgrade Pittsburgh's pass rating for this agree with Ward out. However,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Ben Roethlisberger should light up a thin Browns' secondary that was bad even with Pool and Wright.
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